After the extreme prosperity of the home appliance industry encountered extreme cold

For the appliance industry, the winter of 2011 is cooler than in previous years. Last year, some experts warned that the home appliance market will not reproduce the bustling scene of last year, but no one thought that the situation would be so bad. In the words of a person in the home appliance industry, the home appliance industry has just bid farewell to the first decade of the 21st century with great prosperity. As a result, in the first year of the new decade, it hit the iceberg.

From the "downsizing" of Midea Group's marketing system to the United States, 30% of the individual sales companies of the Refrigeration Appliances Group in the United States have laid off 30% of the employees. The layoffs of Midea Group have become increasingly fierce. It is not only in the United States that a company wields layoffs. According to industry sources, this layoffs involve almost all home appliance companies. “Only other companies do not have such a big fanfare.”

Behind the layoffs is the increased pressure on business operations and the unsustainable high growth. An electronics company sales executive said with emotion: "This year we are poor, the pressure is great, and it's hard for the winter." Upstream suppliers also feel the same way. Last week, LGB senior vice president of LGD visited China said that for all panel companies In the past year and a half, the days have been very sad.

Policy to promote home appliance industry

Xu Dongsheng, general secretary of the Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that the normal development speed of the home appliance industry should be maintained at about 15%, which is a relatively good state, but in recent years, the development of the home appliance industry is like riding a roller coaster.

Before 2007, the scale of China's home appliance industry reached a new level every year. Data from Zhongyi Kang Company showed that in 2005, the annual sales of home appliance industry reached 611 billion yuan, which increased to 705.6 billion yuan in 2006 and reached 8067 million yuan in 2007. After 2007, the home appliance industry began a “jumping” development. In 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the growth of the industry scale dropped sharply to 4.5%, compared with 5.8% in 2009.

In 2009, favorable policies such as home appliances going to the countryside, trade-in replacement, and air-conditioning energy-saving subsidies were introduced in succession. For every household appliance company that sells a product that meets the specifications, the state will give a policy subsidy of 10%-13%. With the stimulation of relevant favorable policies, in 2010, the home appliance industry ushered in a “rich” campaign.

According to industry association statistics, the revenues and net profit growth of Midea and Gree are all over 40%; Chigo Energy Holdings’ government energy subsidies received in the first half of 2010 were as high as 590 million yuan, and the company’s net profit was 2.78 in the first half of the year. 100 million yuan.

Annual home appliances bidding to the countryside can best reflect the development status of the industry. In the tender meeting for home appliances to the countryside held in November 2010, there were 200 refrigerator companies bidding. The responsible person of Midea’s responsible for bidding for home appliances to the countryside said, “There are many enterprises and brands that have emerged after the implementation of the home appliances to the countryside policy. Some old brands are already on the verge of death, but they can live for a while by policy. Once the policy is withdrawn, the survival of these companies will be unsustainable and the after-sales problems of their products will be highlighted."

According to an “Eleventh Five-Year Review” provided by the Association of Home Appliances Industry, the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” (2005-2010) is a five-year celebration worthy of celebration in the past 30 years of development of the home appliance industry. During this period, the state implemented a series of policies such as home appliances going to the countryside, old-for-new trades, energy-saving benefits, and so on, which promoted the upgrading of the home appliance industry. Within five years, there were 3,133 home appliance companies with annual sales of more than 5 million, an increase of 59%, and 1.02 million employees, a year-on-year increase of 22%.

Push the throttle and hit the brakes

In 2010, the annual revenue of Midea Group exceeded 110 billion yuan, becoming the second largest home appliance company in China after Haier. However, it has not been praised by peers, but it has been called “public enemy of household appliances”.

In the home appliance industry, the United States is undoubtedly the biggest dark horse in the sports industry.

In 2004, the United States entered the auto industry and suffered heavy losses. After losing more than one billion yuan, it withdrew and began to focus on home appliances and succeeded. In 2004, the United States successively acquired Rongshida and Hualing, and in 2008 it also agreed to acquire Little Swan to complete the layout in the white power field. Subsequently, Midea's rapid expansion in the area of ​​Japan Electric Power Co., Ltd. achieved an explosive growth of the Group's scale.

The explosive growth of the United States did not gain the praise of its peers. Instead, it was called the "public enemy of household appliances." Because each time the United States enters a new field, it will raise a tragic price war, and quickly occupy the largest share of this market, and continue to play a price war after gaining scale advantages, so that their counterparts “have no way to go”.

However, Xu Dongsheng, general secretary of the Household Electrical Appliances Association, believes that the core technologies of the Chinese home appliance industry are not many. In recent years, Chinese home appliance companies generally rely on the scale to win. The United States is just one of them.

Under the “scale first” guiding ideology, last year the U.S. group formulated a new plan, “Rebuilding a U.S. in five years, and the sales revenue in 2015 would exceed 200 billion yuan.” To accomplish this goal, the U.S. Refrigeration Group took the first step , Let Little Swan air-conditioning rebirth, hoping to get a greater share of air-conditioning market.

A senior manager of the Midea Group stated that "The layoffs of Midea Group today are actually the result of a manager's swerving at the time. For example, pushing Little Swan air conditioners, the brands of Little Swan and Midea have no obvious boundaries and have caused internal competition. Now, it is necessary to spend money to promote Little Swan air-conditioning.” “Even if sales are satisfactory, its sales revenue will not even be equal to the promotion costs of the stores.”

According to reports, over the past five years, Midea Group has built nearly 20 industrial bases nationwide through mergers and acquisitions and self-built models, and the number of employees has grown from 70,000 to 200,000. In addition, Midea also continues to expand its sales channels. According to the United States, by the end of this year, its own-brand stores will reach 15,000.

Until the second half of this year, the United States found that this road was dead. Midea’s financial report showed that in the first half of 2011, the sales revenue of Midea’s electrical appliances increased by 96% year-on-year, and the growth rate in the third quarter dropped back to 9.41%, which is likely to show negative growth in the fourth quarter.

Rapid growth abruptly stops

After the bull market, the white electricity industry faced a market decline and excess production capacity, while the export side was affected by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, and orders gradually declined.

Not only the United States, from the second half of this year, other home appliance companies began to feel chilly bursts.

According to statistics, Gree's sales revenue in the first half of the year increased by 60.03% year-on-year, fell to 24.46% in the third quarter, and net profit also dropped from 40.37% to 18.79%; Hisense Kelon's first-half sales revenue was 9.681 billion yuan in the third quarter. RMB 4.6 billion was in a negative growth year-on-year; the air-conditioning energy-saving subsidy policy benefited the most, and it also entered negative growth in the third quarter.

According to statistics from Ovid Consulting, the domestic air-conditioning market has seen a bull market for nearly two years from the second half of 2009 to the first half of this year. In 2010, the sales growth rate of the domestic air-conditioning market reached 32.2%, and the cumulative year-on-year retail sales volume increased by 33.9% in the first half of this year. However, in the third quarter, the market changed dramatically and the growth momentum came to an abrupt end. In the third quarter, retail sales of the air-conditioning market decreased by 9.0% year-on-year, while cumulative retail sales in the first three quarters only rose by 18.3% year-on-year, far below the growth rate in the first half of the year.

Cai Ying, Assistant Director of the Development Department of the National Information Center, revealed that sales of white goods all fell sharply in October this year, with refrigerator sales falling 9.64% from the same period last year and washing machines falling 8.17%. "The increase in costs, the market decline, and excess production capacity are the three major pressures facing the white goods industry."

On the other hand, due to the impact of the European and US sovereign debt crisis on exports, orders have gradually declined. According to data from the Canton Fair in October 2011, Gree, Midea, Haier and Chigo, the top four exporters, all experienced a 50%-77% decline in November this year, of which US exports have been falling for four consecutive months.

"Cold" spread throughout the industry

In addition to the white electricity industry, the "coldness" of the market's decline has rapidly spread to small home appliances, color TV companies, and upstream supply chain companies.

The same is true of the small household appliance industry. In the first half of 2011, the share of Jiuyang’s shares fell slightly; the sales revenue of Midea’s 2010 revenue exceeded 30 billion yuan, and the growth rate of the company’s 2010 sales fell back to around 10% since the second half of this year.

TV companies failed to invest in the company last year and caused collective losses. Various financial indicators in the first half of the year improved compared to the same period of last year. However, the overall price of the domestic color TV market is still not optimistic. According to the data released by Ovid Consulting, in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic color TV retail market was 19.37 million units, and the sales amount was 73.66 billion yuan, which was a decrease of 0.6% and 2.3% from the same period of last year. It is expected that the color TV market will maintain low-speed growth in the second half of the year, and annual sales will be lower than last year's level.

The days of supply chain companies in the home appliance industry are also difficult.

Bear the brunt of the impact of color TV panel companies. Due to the oversupply of the global LCD panel, prices have dropped for 17 consecutive months. Under this background, several major panel makers in the world have reported losses.

LGD's construction time for the high-generation LCD panel production line in Guangzhou pushed again and again. Li Bangyi, senior vice president of LGD, said that this is mainly because the panel companies have been too difficult in the past one and a half years and they have not yet found a suitable opportunity to start construction.

LG Group and Taiwan’s AOC, a joint venture company established two years ago to manufacture liquid crystal modules, declared failure last week. The company “HuaLu”, a company that manufactures controllers for air-conditioning in Foshan, had last week’s workers’ strikes “required to work overtime” due to too few orders in the second half of the year.

Responding to environmental layoffs "winter"

In response to changes in the macroeconomic environment, the United States has responded with layoffs. However, according to reports, the layoffs are not only the United States one, other companies are quietly slimming.

In early December, the voice of netizens “Great layoffs by the United States and new employees almost all making cannon fodder” attracted the attention of the industry.

Midea began layoffs in November, cooling company more than 60 sales companies around the company layoffs in more than 40%, some sales companies more than 60%, headquarters about 50%; daily household appliances group in 2012 large-scale campus recruitment of new employees Full cut. The Group’s more than 60 joint-venture sales subsidiaries retained only 11 companies.

In this regard, the United States’s group’s argument is that layoffs are measures to respond to changes in the macroeconomic environment. "The Midea Group initiated the transformation and upgrading, changing the cost advantage of high-density investment and scale manufacturing to the growth model. We hope to use the product structure change and brand promotion to drive business growth and increase the gross profit margin."

In addition to layoffs, Midea Refrigeration Group has also adopted an agency system to replace its own joint venture sales sub-company model, which has reduced the number of marketing personnel in each region. The United States and Japan's daily marketing agencies built around the country this year have also changed accordingly. Many regions directly cancel marketing companies.

According to a person in charge of a third-party home appliance sales channel, it is not only the United States that is making layoffs. Other companies are also quietly downsizing. There is no such a big scale as the United States, and there is no such a big fanfare of the United States.

According to “21st Century Business Herald” report, although the color TV industry performed better than the white companies since the third quarter of this year, the marketing and manufacturing staff of color TV giants such as Skyworth and TCL also made some adjustments, while the white electricity industry Haier and Gree Galanz also began to carry out marketing channel reforms. Its staff adjustment rate is generally 10%-15%. Haier’s industrial and trading companies are also making adjustments based on their performance. Some of the performance evaluation employees are dismissed. In the past, employees in the electrical chain, community stores, and boutique outlets were partially adjusted to Haier’s Nishunshun et al. Channels. In addition, Haier Rishun hopes to "bring" existing channel personnel through the sale of other corporate goods. This year, Haier's system sales may exceed 5 billion yuan. Yang Hongmin, a spokesman for Beijing office of Hisense, said that the concept of "home appliance winter" is very vivid. As the leading enterprise in the home appliance industry, Midea has to lay off its staff for the winter. Other companies can imagine. The layoffs, the United States has performed more prominent, other companies have a corresponding approach. Next year will be the most unpleasant year for home appliance companies. I personally speculate that Midea is predicting that the total number of household appliances will shrink next year. The original employment scale cannot support it. Therefore, we will start hands early and cut people before the end of the year so that next year There can be a relatively good per capita output.

Depressed consumer led to cold winter of home appliance industry

The industry believes that the first cold winter that caused this home appliance winter is the home appliance policy. In June of this year, the air-conditioning energy saving subsidy policy expired. In November, the policy of home appliances to rural areas in some provinces and cities expired. In December, the home appliance replacement policy expires. The three stimulus policies that brought homelessness to the home appliance industry have come to an end.

However, the home appliance industry is facing more than the cold wind. Ovid Consulting analyst Zhang Yanbin said that from the point of view of the overall economic environment, entering the third quarter is also the most severe economic environment, has a serious impact on large durable consumer goods. “First of all, the unpredictability of economic development has lowered consumer demand. In the second half of this year, under the influence of the worsening debt crisis in Europe, developed economies represented by the United States have lowered their economic growth expectations. The global economic downturn has also affected China’s economic development, and in order to suppress inflation and reduce the GDP growth target this year, consumers are increasingly confused about the prospects for economic growth. The tepid market is the best example."

“The downturn in the property market has also reduced the rigid demand for home appliances. The regulation of the domestic property market has been almost a year since the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of the year, the transaction volume of the property market has started to shrink. Correspondingly, the distribution of affordable housing construction has lagged behind, and it is still unable to fill the shrinking market. Reduced demand.At the current stage of the development of the air-conditioning market, the growth in the primary and secondary markets is mainly due to the rigid demand brought by new residential properties. The continuing downturn in the real estate market is affecting this new rigid demand."

In addition, there are bitter fruits home appliance companies brewing. The previous round of home appliance market bull market was motivated by policies, and various manufacturers this year have adopted “policy is about to be launched and timely catch up with the last train of policies”. This has made many hesitant consumers consume in advance. As a result, the explosive growth of air-conditioning in April and May this year. "After entering the third quarter, the policy effect has disappeared. Not only does the market naturally return to calm, but the effect of early consumption also begins to show itself." Zhang Yanbin said that companies must face a consequent consumption bottleneck period.

Household appliance companies also face the dual pressure of rising raw material costs such as copper and aluminum and labor costs.

Skyworth Digital released its semi-annual report for the fiscal year 2011-2012, which showed that the cost of paying employee wages, dividends, and equity incentives rose by 68% from April to September this year, making it the largest increase in its cost.

â–  Prospects

Layoffs may not work for the winter

“Redundancies, shrinking front lines, selling non-core businesses, and researching and developing new products with unique advantages are all methods for wintering for home appliance companies. However, these methods may not be effective. If companies are not competitive, they will die if they cannot bear the cold. "Home appliance industry observer Liang Zhenpeng commented.

Xu Dongsheng, general secretary of the Household Electrical Appliances Association, also agreed with this view. “The household electrical appliance industry has obvious cyclical changes. After rapid development every few years, there will always be a period of slow development in one or two years. During this period, there will be survival of the fittest and companies will be left behind. There will be industry reshuffle.”

Xu Dongsheng said: “Over the past few years, we have just caught up with favorable factors such as the transfer of global manufacturing industries to China, and the accelerating pace of urbanization in China. The home appliance market has also been stimulated by national policies and the entire industry has developed rapidly. There are many private enterprises that see opportunities , quickly enter the industry, and get explosive growth. Frankly, now the number of companies in the home appliance industry is too high, the survival of the fittest is natural. Now the industry is entering the callback period, it is the time to shuffle.

According to the National Information Center, in the mid to late 1990s, there were more than 50 competitive color TV brands, but now it has been reduced to about 10; air conditioners have been reduced from 110 to 8; refrigerators have been reduced from 75 to 10 Washing machines reduced from 80 to 7. Although there are still some brands that have barely maintained their livelihoods, most of the uncompetitive brands have actually died.

Among them, the annual white paper on air-conditioning retail markets released by the National Information Center showed that over 200 air-conditioning refrigerated air-conditioning brands had died in 2005, 17 died in 2006, 19 died in 2007, and 18 died in 2008. In the 2009 frozen year, five brands were eliminated mercilessly.

"It's hard to say who will be eliminated. But from the point of view of law, those who enter later, because there is not enough accumulation in the market, the easiest to be eliminated." Xu Dongsheng said.

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