With the global concern brought about by climate change issues, clean low carbon has become the main direction of a new round of global energy transformation. From the perspective of world experience, countries have experienced energy transformation in the process of development, but the roads that different countries have taken are not the same. Among them, Germany, as one of the pioneers of energy transformation, its development model has been followed by many countries. How to learn from the German experience is also a question that China has been thinking about.
Recently, the Institute of Science and Technology Strategic Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences invited Stephen Keller, the former president of the German Energy Agency with nearly 15 years of experience, to introduce the background, process and problems of the German energy transition and to deeply explore the enlightenment to China.
“Energy transformation must be a transformation with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The transformation should not talk about methods, but target management.†Stephen’s speech entitled “Energy Transformation 2.0: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Germany and Implications for China†Said in the middle.
Taking Germany as a guide, Stephen believes that there are several problems in the process of German energy transformation for China to explore.
Policy--Renewable Energy Law
In fact, the German energy transformation did not start with the withdrawal of fossil energy and carbon dioxide emissions, but from the anti-nuclear appeal. In the process of energy transformation, it has developed two major goals. One is to withdraw from nuclear power. It is expected that the last nuclear power plant will be retired in 2022. Second, based on 1990, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 80% to 95% by 2050.
In the process, policy factors have played an important role in energy transition. Germany has enacted the Renewable Energy Law, making investment in renewable energy fields a risk-free, high-profit investment field, providing legal protection for the increase in the share of renewable energy.
It is understood that in 2000, Germany's renewable energy ratio was only 5%, and the current proportion of renewable energy has reached 33%, of which photovoltaic performance is particularly strong.
However, in Stephen's view, the Renewable Energy Law also brought the biggest challenges in Germany's energy transformation. On the one hand, renewable energy has priority in accessing the Internet, and the rest of the energy bidding on the Internet has caused a burden on the power station. When the power generation is long, the rest of the energy is difficult to access the Internet. When the power is insufficient, the power resources such as coal and electricity are not available.
On the other hand, the emergence of negative electricity prices makes it necessary for the country to post the excess electricity in the case of more electricity. These problems mean that the electricity market is no longer a complete market-oriented, intelligent system, and it cannot mobilize the enthusiasm of people to produce and use renewable energy.
“The state guarantees that the owners of power stations can sell electricity, so no one cares whether this electricity is wasted or puts pressure on the grid.†Stephen believes that although the Renewable Energy Law has been revised, At that time, the fixed price of renewable energy was unchanged for 20 years, and it was a big mistake to give priority to online access instead of bidding online.
In this regard, Zhu Xi, an associate researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the problem of negative electricity prices faced by Germany is a problem that arises after the share of renewable energy has increased to a certain extent, but the proportion of renewable energy can be achieved. The high share is precisely the promotion of the Renewable Energy Law, and China is the opposite. The problem in China is that the relevant renewable energy law has been put on hold a few years later. Without the mandatory Internet access, the wind, light and other power resources are not competitive in the current market.
Volatility and power grid construction
"Our network has not been built, so that a considerable amount of renewable energy cannot be delivered in time." Stephen said that one of the mistakes made by Germany was that the power grid construction was not synchronized with the development of wind and light.
Under the energy transformation, the traditional fossil energy has turned to renewable energy, and the two major power fluctuations of photovoltaic and wind power are particularly fierce. Volatility is the biggest challenge for the construction of renewable energy, policy formulation and industry operation. In order to adapt to its volatility, it also needs the coordination and transformation of the power grid.
How to solve the volatility and power grid problems? "Either electricity can be stored for a long time, or electricity can be used for a long time. When electricity is low, it is less used." Stephen said that the two paths to solve this problem are one on the storage side and one on the user side. The key is to build a smart grid system and a smart power system.
Taking electric vehicles as an example, electric vehicles have high power. If all electric vehicles are charged at the same time, it will put pressure on the urban power grid. This requires intelligent charging of electric vehicles to avoid simultaneous charging. And it needs to be able to charge more when there is more electricity, less charge when there is less electricity, and solve the problem of excess or deficiency of power. These are what the smart grid can do.
Liu Hong, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that energy transformation is a systematic project. The network of supply and volatility requires flexibility, and the network and energy systems must be intelligent. It said: "The road to future transformation is still very long. Renewable energy will be more and more integrated from the overall, systematic and long-term, which is the experience that China can learn."
Future energy form
The adjustment between the volatility of the supply side and the flexibility of the demand side requires systematic cooperation. In addition to the construction of the power grid, Stephen believes that renewable and easy-to-store hydrogen energy will be the main force for solving energy problems in the future energy form.
“Hydrogen and carbon dioxide can synthesize natural gas and enter the natural gas network. The three gaseous fuels, biogas, hydrogen and natural gas, are important energy sources for the future, and can be used as storage energy.†Stephen said that electricity and gas will be the two pillars of future energy.
At present, the problem facing hydrogen energy application is that the price of hydrogen energy is still at a high level from manufacturing to storage to use, and it is difficult to popularize it.
In the process of China's energy transformation, an energy supply structure with electricity as a conversion center is gradually formed. It is planned that in the terminal energy structure, the proportion of electricity will gradually increase from 22% in 2015 to 30% in 2030, and further mention about 38% in 2050. . At the same time, vigorously strengthen the natural gas supply capacity.
"The future energy form must be a hybrid energy form. But there is a difference in each country." Zhu Xi believes that China's future energy system is undoubtedly diverse, but because of the starting point, technology, and Conditions such as facilities are different, and the choices will be different.
In response to China's energy transformation, Stephen suggested that China's energy transformation needs to use the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions as a measure of all standards. With this as the center, we will keep up with the necessary construction of smart grids and smart power. At the same time, energy transformation requires the participation of the whole people, and we must give full play to the enthusiasm and strength of the people.
However, compared with Germany's mature economies, laws and budgets, China is a developing economy. Supply, demand, energy and consumption are constantly changing. How to transform requires deep thinking. At the same time, China's energy transformation has the pursuit of a clean, low-carbon, cost-effective, safe and reliable high-quality energy system. How can we combine short-term and long-term planning to achieve high quality by 2050?
“The energy transformation is just beginning, the hard work is still behind, and the energy transformation is not so simple.†Stephen said that he hopes that creative scientists and engineers can jointly use innovation to solve these problems.
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