On the court, a watermelon-sized robot raised his right foot, prepared to force, kicked the ball and shot, unexpectedly, his right foot was lifted too high, instantly lost balance and fell to the ground. The bow was rugged and he wanted to get up, but he struggled after he struggled. He had to give up.
The audience outside the stadium saw the scene screaming, covering their faces and laughing, and the clumsy side of the robot was seen: this is not a two- or three-year-old child? You see, just stand up again, still so hard.
This scene took place at the RoboCup Robot World Cup China Division site held in Keqiao, Shaoxing. The 2018 National Robot Development Forum, which was held at the same time, was separated from the competition site by a wall. Scientists and entrepreneurs here shared the frontiers of digital manufacturing and artificial intelligence in China, as well as the industry development trend of robots with “a good future situationâ€. Compared with the two, it adds a bit of awkwardness to the former.
And this, to a certain extent, outlines the current state of robot development. On the one hand, whether it is industrial robots or service robots, the statistical development trend of the industry is “goodâ€, and academic experts have predicted that the robots that are “unreachable†in science fiction movies will come into reality in the near future. On the other hand, key technologies such as “high flexibility†and “high precision†and key applications such as “multi-functionality†and “intelligence†are still faltering and urgently need to be broken.
The physicist Stephen Hawking repeatedly talked about his concerns about the development of artificial intelligence: "Artificial intelligence may not only be the biggest event in human history, but also the last event." In other words, "artificial intelligence may Lead to the demise of mankind." But from now on, it seems too early to worry about this issue.
2018 RoboCup Robot World Cup China Division site. Photo courtesy of the competition
Frequent noise: Will humans beg for robots in the future?
At the National Robot Development Forum, Wang Natural, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that from the perspective of market demand, public opinion support, policy input, and research output, industrial development, robots are now The best period of development.
According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) statistics, global industrial robot sales growth reached a record high in 2016, reaching 294,000 units, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and sales of service robots reached 6.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Among them, China has become the world's largest market for industrial robots. In 2016, industrial robots sold 89,000 units, accounting for 30.3% of global market sales.
Along with the huge industrial wave, a kind of worry permeates the crowd, that is, the "step" of the robot is so fast, whether it will steal the human bowl in the future, and a job war with human beings, and then take away humanity. all?
In Wang Guo's view, this is a misunderstanding and the first major noise in the field of robotics. At the forum, he showed off the cover of the first issue of The New Yoker. The cover uses an exaggerated picture to visualize this fear and fear: the robot rules the world, and humans are begging the robot.
"This is confusing, it is impossible to have this state, the robot is always an artifact." On the forum, Wang Natural straightforwardly showed his attitude.
He quoted data from the American Robotics Federation as saying that from 2010 to 2016, the number of "new robots" in the United States increased by 136,700 units, while the number of "manufacturing jobs" in the United States increased by 894,000, and the unemployment rate was It fell by 5.1%.
From this set of data, it can be seen intuitively that it is too early for the robot to take away the human "rice bowl". Wang Natural believes that, more importantly, the increase in robotics has greatly improved efficiency and increased the competitiveness of enterprises and even the country.
In fact, there are many supporters in the industry who say "machine substitution" and "machine generation". However, "the ideal is very full and the reality is very skinny."
As early as 2011, Foxconn announced a "million robot program" in high-profile, that is, through the introduction of 1 million robots in three years, instead of labor. However, over the years, the company has deployed only tens of thousands of robots and the number of employees is still over one million.
Wang Natural used this as an example. Compared with humans, robots still have great limitations. Many industrial robots can only engage in simple mechanical transportation operations. In the face of many aspects such as ship welding and aircraft assembly, they cannot do anything. However, for service robots, there is no way to really care for and care for the elderly. "There are some complicated process technologies, and there is no ready-made law, and it is difficult to achieve automation."
These problems are not solved, the robot is still "cracky"
This also returned to the question of the "clumsy" performance of the robot on the field. In the view of Zheng Nanning, the academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the chairman of the China Automation Society, this just shows that the flexibility of the robot is not enough, and the manpower has a simple support action. In terms of robots, it is “a great testâ€, which requires researchers to experiment again and again to find an optimal algorithm.
At the forum, Qiao Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also gave a similar view: high precision and high flexibility are the two major bottlenecks that restrict the development of robots at the moment.
She enumerates a set of numbers. The repeatability of domestic robots is 0.08~0.03 mm. The repeatability of foreign robots is 0.015~0.01 mm, while the accuracy of real mission requirements is 0.0075~0.0025 mm, although the two have already controlled the error very much. Within a small scope, there is still a certain gap from the actual application needs.
The problem of high flexibility is even more prominent.
Qiao Hong said that because the problem of compliance operation has not been solved, China's 3C manufacturing industry, which is dominated by computers, communications (CommunicaTIon) and consumer electronics (Consumer Electronics), is still dominated by women workers. In 2017, 3C industry robots The density is only 11 units per 10,000 people.
“Robots urgently need to learn 'intelligence and flexibility' from humans,†says Joe Red, as we expect from robots like “people†– to have a real deal on operational flexibility, overall coordination, and personalized service. Breakthrough.
As for robots holding "artificial intelligence" and achieving deep learning, it is even more difficult. Zheng Nanning has a point of view that this is the most difficult challenge to achieve "human intelligence." Self-awareness and the ability to reflect on one's own situation and behavior are the most important and fundamental points for human beings to distinguish themselves from other creatures.
Zheng Nanning said that human cerebral cortical capacity is limited. If the connection between intelligent machine equipment and human brain will not only enhance human ability, but also inspire the machine. Let the machine have self-awareness, emotion and reflection, which is a fascinating field of exploration for both science and philosophy.
In fact, reviewing the development history of industrial robots for more than 50 years, it is not difficult to find that the basic function is to replace people with high-intensity, monotonous and repetitive tasks, but there is no case of “flexible†and “coordinated†operations that are bright and eye-catching. Not to mention the case of truly “intelligent awarenessâ€.
"Father of Industry 4.0" and Professor Wolfgang Walster of the German Center for Artificial Intelligence Research have mentioned that without artificial intelligence, it is impossible to fully realize Industry 4.0. However, this does not mean that Industry 4.0 is “unmanned productionâ€. The fact is that even in the next 10 years, it is not unmanned production, but combined production.
Wang Natural said that combined production and human-computer interaction will create new areas of work. It is expected that 85% of the various occupations in 2030 will not be born yet. "It is necessary to seize this opportunity!"
Don't be fooled by the illusion that "China is already ahead"
However, Wang Natural found that there is another kind of noise in the society. "There are always some people who are blowing our articles first, patents first, some media titles are moving 'first time' 'breakthrough' 'more than the United States'...but these There is really nothing to blow!"
He said that the development of the Chinese robot industry is fierce, which is a fact. However, there are also some surpluses in the industry. What is more serious is that compared with the developed countries such as the United States, China’s patents in the field of robots seem to be lacking and still need to catch up.
According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), 54% of dedicated service robots from the United States in the past few years, 27% from Europe, and only 19% from Asia; medical robots are Europe and the United States, 52% from Europe 46% came from the United States, and there is almost no Chinese.
Therefore, Wang Natural describes the current development of robots as “opportunities and challengesâ€. There are many opportunities left for China. Taking industrial robots as an example, there are still many blanks waiting to be occupied. "Glassing, ship welding, aircraft assembly", etc., are all beyond the current industrial robots. Once China breaks through relevant Technology can take its place.
Although the service robot has sprung up, the development momentum is fierce, but looking at the whole market, Wang Natural still can't feel the charm of the machine "people". "I am also an old man in his 70s, but when he really needs help, he discovers what robots are. Busy can't help, they are more of a 'toy'."
In his view, the future direction that needs to be broken is "human-machine integration."
The latest cutting-edge research shows that it is expected that by 2025, industrial robots will enter the next generation, which will be an era of robots with high efficiency, flexibility and cooperation.
Wang Natural said that the new generation of robots is not simply to replace people, but to adapt the robot to the environment, to be flexible, to cooperate with others, and to move toward "human-machine integration," that is, the relationship between robots and people is transformed from slaves to partners.
At the forum, the guest speaker, Dr. Du Pinsheng from Phoenix Electric China, also mentioned that artificial intelligence is based on human functions, such as studying the functions of the human eye, ears, mouth, brain, hands and feet, thus corresponding visual and image recognition, Areas such as voice control and language systems, machine deep learning, forecasting and deepening applications help the manufacturing industry.
“In the past, people shouted slogans such as 'machine substitution', 'factory no one', 'smart creation', is a misunderstanding, in fact, it should be 'machine helper' 'factory person' 'smart person', artificial intelligence Is a powerful weapon to achieve intelligent manufacturing." Du Pinsheng said.
Wang Natural said that communion with people is to let robots combine human symbolization, learning, foresight, self-regulation and logical reasoning with machine precision, power, repetition, working time and environmental tolerance.
In layman's terms, the future industrial robots will go down the altar and become part of the production system to achieve "ready-to-use". However, the figure of the person is still visible.
60 Series Of LFP Cylindrical Lithium-ion Battery
In order to reduce the safety hazards of lithium-ion batteries and improve the life cycle of LFP batteries, ZSEM provides 60 series of large cylindrical lithium iron phosphate batteries for new energy storage, communication base station power supplies, special power supplies, and automotive and ship batteries.
Shandong Huachuang Times Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.dadncell.com