It will take time for the photovoltaic industry to gradually clear up

At the beginning of the new year, the domestic and foreign photovoltaic industry welcomed the warm current in the “winter”, and the price of photovoltaic products was rebounding. In addition, China will officially impose punitive tariffs on imported polysilicon after the Spring Festival. A series of favorable factors have pushed the PV market to gradually reveal the bottoming out.

Industry analysis pointed out that due to the recent favorable domestic policies and continuing to ferment, and the emergence of a new round of installations in overseas markets, bringing domestic and foreign demand in the downstream terminal market to pick up, the photovoltaic industry has initially had a rebound basis. In addition, the acceleration of the process of de-capacity in the manufacturing sector, and the continued improvement in the photovoltaic industry throughout the year have become increasingly clear. However, it still needs to be noted that whether the industry is fully warming remains to be addressed by the EU’s “double reverse” results and domestic policies.

The "cold" winter is nearing completion

In the past 2012, the industry generally reported that it was the most “cold” year for the global photovoltaic industry: Europe and the United States had “double opposition”, limited start-up of the domestic market, serious overcapacity in the manufacturing industry, and frequent corporate debt crises. The PV market was almost “dead "the edge of.

However, near the end of the year, the industrial industry “has nothing to do with nothing” in the slightest light: the Chinese government proposed a new policy of photovoltaic "rescue", emerging markets such as Japan and the United Kingdom emerged a new wave of seizures, Warren Buffett announced spending 10 billion third investment Photovoltaic power plant project. A series of moves has led many industry players to expect the worst of the PV industry may be nearing completion.

In fact, many changes in the photovoltaic market have begun to confirm this statement. The favorable domestic policies have boosted the domestic enterprises’ emergence of a wave of power plant construction. The prices of photovoltaic products represented by monocrystalline silicon and silicon wafers have rallied for several consecutive weeks. The stock prices of Hong Kong stocks and China Prospective Solar Stocks have appeared since the beginning of the year. The collective rise.

It is worth noting that the manufacturing industry, which has always been regarded as likely to finally emerge from the industry's "winter", has also recently begun to accelerate the process of capacity building. According to a reporter from the China Securities Journal, on the one hand, the backward production capacity of some SMEs is gradually withdrawing from the market after experiencing the production suspension period last year; on the other hand, due to the steady expansion of domestic and foreign market demand, the supply volume has been gradually reduced, and the domestic frontline has been reduced. At present, the operating rate of enterprises is at least 80%. Some first-line enterprises are full of production and there is a shortage of urgent orders and employment.

The volume growth of orders has greatly boosted the confidence of some manufacturers. According to a reporter from the China Securities Journal, first-tier battery makers in Taiwan have planned to increase their product prices by 5% to 10%. They expect that the outlook for product orders will start to become clear from January to February 2013.

Staged market creates investment opportunities

Guoxin Securities analysts believe that the inefficient production capacity of domestic SMEs in the photovoltaic industry will be squeezed out this year and the supply of the industry will continue to improve. This will increase the demand caused by the policy activation effect, and the overall bottoming out of the industry form.

Further analysis believes that due to the early accumulation of the PV industry, it is expected that there will be a holistic market in the industry this year, which is not realistic. However, the staged market can still generate a series of investment opportunities.

According to the analysts mentioned above, the industry will be in the traditional off-season in the first quarter of this year. European emergency orders and Japanese market demand will drive inventory declines. At the same time, SMEs will gradually withdraw. In the second quarter, the domestic Golden Sun project completed the installation of 2.83 GW by June 30, which will bring about a substantial increase in demand before the expiration of the policy.

And specific to the second half of this year, if the photovoltaic industry can continue to improve, it is necessary to look forward to the EU's "double reverse" final results. However, there is still uncertainty in this point of view.

In the above phased market, from the analysis of all aspects of the industrial chain, the construction of the downstream photovoltaic power station will undoubtedly drive the light road into the fast lane. Jing Ao solar expert Runchuan told reporters that the National Energy Administration has made it clear that this year's new photovoltaic installations will reach 10 million kilowatts or more. If the policy further refines the grid-connected and tariff subsidy policy, it will promote the development of terminal photovoltaic power stations, especially distributed power plants, into the blowout period.

Specific to the upstream manufacturing sector, the process of de-capacity will lead to differentiation in the industry's competitive landscape. Enterprises that have the advantages of technology and mode will regain orders for new markets, and accelerate the gradual release of enterprises. Yingli Green Energy recently revealed that the company has accumulated 2.2GW of orders in 2012, ranking first in the world. Among them, orders for domestic Golden Sun projects reached nearly 300MW. These orders will be expected to be released this year as actual shipments.

In addition, with the rapid advancement of distributed photovoltaic power generation, monocrystalline silicon cells that are more suitable for use in rooftop power station systems will benefit. The recent good performance of domestic monocrystalline silicon manufacturers such as Longji (8.40, -0.31, -3.56%) and Comtec Solar has foreshadowed this market segment's improvement.

The foundation for comprehensive warming remains to be consolidated

Although this year's bottoming out of the photovoltaic situation has become clearer, many people in the industry still pointed out that throughout the year of 2013, the photovoltaic industry is still in a period of deep adjustment, and the dual processes of capacity reduction and industrial integration will emerge in parallel, and this will be the industry's next year Warm up the foundation.

Dongxing Securities analysts believe that global PV module shipments in 2013 will reach 30GW, an increase of 8% year-on-year. Although the global PV market demand will continue to grow steadily, the global PV production capacity has exceeded 50GW, still far exceeding the overall market demand. This means that unless there is a sudden progress in the process of de-capacity, it is still not possible to digest excess production capacity overnight.

In addition, although the large-scale start-up of the domestic market has been expected to be the life-saving straw for photovoltaics, excessive reliance on policy support for the photovoltaic industry to achieve another leap will still require detailed refinement of early-stage favorable policies.

Solarbuzz Photovoltaic Analyst Han Qiming said to reporters of China Securities Journal earlier that the current clear-cut rule is how much the amount of distributed PV power subsidy is set, which directly affects the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the development of distributed power generation projects. In addition, although construction of the western power station was very hot, the operation of the power station was not economical due to the repeated arrears of the Ministry of Finance's renewable energy price surcharge. If the Ministry of Finance does not further define the future financial support, it may suppress the profits of the downstream power station operators, and then transmit the orders to the upstream power station development until the equipment suppliers.

Taken together, the trend of the PV market rebounding this year after a series of positive factors has gradually become clear. There are no shortages of phased market and industrial chain investment opportunities. However, the overall recovery of the industry may have to be postponed until 2014.