In the development strategy of new energy vehicles, various countries and regions in the world have made different choices based on their own assessments, and adopted different support strategies for the development and promotion of relevant battery technologies. From the current overall situation, Japan and Europe and the United States mainly focus on lithium batteries and fuel cells, and due to the consideration of resource advantages and technology maturity, China has placed emphasis on the promotion of nickel-hydrogen batteries in the newly released policies.
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Nickel-metal hydride battery has become the focus of policy support in China at this stage
In the “New Energy Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprise and Product Access Management Rules†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China on June 25, according to the maturity of new energy vehicles, systems and key assembly technologies, the degree of improvement of national and industry standards, and the degree of industrialization The difference is divided into three different technical stages: start-up period, development period and maturity period, and classified management is given.
According to national regulations, the products in the initial stage can only be produced in small batches, and only in the approved area, scope, duration and conditions, the demonstration operation is carried out, and the running status of all products is monitored in real time; the products in the development period are allowed to be mass-produced. It can only be sold and used under the approved area, scope, time limit and conditions, and at least 20% of the sales status of the products are monitored in real time; the vehicle production enterprise and product announcement of mature products and conventional automobile products are managed. The same way, the same as the regular car products in sales and use.
This means that in China, before December 31, 2010, hybrid and electric vehicles equipped with lithium batteries will be limited to sales and use areas, while hybrid and electric vehicles using nickel-hydrogen batteries can be sold and used throughout the country.
Experts believe that the reason why the country is now shifting its development focus from lithium batteries to nickel-metal hydride batteries is mainly because the technology of nickel-hydrogen batteries is more mature than lithium batteries, and the mineral resources are more abundant. In the future, new energy vehicles will be more easily commercialized. stage. "NiMH-Lithium-Fuel Cell" Industrialization Path
Among the three commonly used vehicle batteries, lead-acid batteries have long since withdrawn from mainstream applications due to serious environmental pollution. Although nickel-metal hydride batteries are currently the mainstream of commercialization, the laboratory data of main indicators are lower than lithium batteries, and theoretically basic. There is no room for improvement; despite the superior performance of lithium batteries, safety is not guaranteed, and relatively high cost also hinders commercial use.
Experts predict that new energy vehicles will move toward the industrialization path of "nickel-hydrogen-lithium-fuel cells". From the perspective of development trends and speed, only nickel-hydrogen batteries can be realized in the short-term. Because nickel-hydrogen battery technology is the most mature, it will remain the mainstream of new energy vehicles in the next three years. After that, nickel-hydrogen battery technology will be combined with lithium iron phosphate. Hydrogen fuel cells will be replaced by lithium batteries and fuel cells in five years. Battery giants Panasonic and Sanyo also believe that lithium-ion battery cannot replace nickel-hydrogen battery in two to three years. The main reason is that nickel-hydrogen battery is cheap and safe, and has reached large-scale production. Lithium batteries still have problems to continue to tackle, such as safety, so commercialization will take time.
According to Japan's Fuji economic analysis, the mainstream status of nickel-metal hydride batteries will continue until 2011, but after 2011 lithium batteries will gradually erode the market share of nickel-metal hydride batteries, the agency estimates the global market for nickel-metal hydride rechargeable batteries for vehicles in 2009. The scale will increase by 23.7% from the previous year to 92 billion yen, but the market for nickel-metal hydride rechargeable batteries for vehicles will fall to 55 billion yen in 2015.
Market demand can bring 2-3 years of rapid growth to nickel-metal hydride batteries
The maturity of nickel-hydrogen battery in technology and industrial chain determines that it will coexist with lithium battery in a certain period of time. The appearance of lithium iron phosphate cathode material has made lithium battery have advantages in performance and cost, but stable mass production capacity. The lack of inadequacy and the lack of actual operational inspections still discourage some new energy vehicle manufacturers; in contrast, nickel-hydrogen power batteries have been in actual combat for many years, the technology and industrial chain are quite perfect, and they can form a complete vehicle in a short time. Stable supporting capacity, so it can still be widely used in new energy vehicles in a certain period of time.
According to industry estimates, the nickel-hydrogen battery market is still expected to achieve rapid growth in 2-3 years. In the next 2-3 years, the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles†plan, the gradual popularization of hybrid vehicles, and the export of overseas markets will be nickel. The demand for hydrogen power battery market has brought strong growth, and when nickel-hydrogen battery and lithium battery are still difficult to distinguish, nickel-hydrogen battery will also enjoy a short period of rapid growth.
Among them, the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles†program already launched in China will bring the first market demand for nickel-hydrogen power batteries. It is estimated that in the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles†program, about 3,200-4,000 new energy vehicles (including passenger cars and passenger cars) will use domestic nickel-hydrogen power batteries, bringing about 3.5-4.4 million in three years. Kilowatt-hour nickel-hydrogen power battery demand.
On the whole, after the domestic and export demand is weakening, the nickel-hydrogen battery will be gradually replaced by lithium battery after 2012.
Enterprise R&D keeps pace with policy
Among the vehicle battery manufacturers in China, the majority of enterprises with nickel-hydrogen battery production capacity include Chunlan Group, Keliyuan, Zhongju High-tech, Hunan Shenzhou, and Kane. Among them, Chunlan Group is domestic HEV nickel-metal hydride. The leader in power battery technology, market share is in a leading position, Zhongju Gaoxin and Hunan Shenzhou have also possessed a certain technical foundation and market position.
As for lithium batteries, most domestic manufacturers do not have the capacity for large-scale mass production, but the relevant production planning is already under implementation, and it is expected that mass production will be possible after 2010.
Experts believe that the progress of science and technology is changing with each passing day. In addition to promoting the industrialization of nickel-metal hydride batteries, China's car companies and related battery companies should take a long-term view and invest in manpower and material resources to develop lithium-ion batteries and maintain fuel cells. The technology is following up and preparing for the occupation of a broader new energy vehicle market.
Although lithium-ion battery is difficult to replace nickel-hydrogen battery in 2-3 years, it should not be overlooked that lithium battery will replace nickel-hydrogen battery as the mainstream of new energy vehicle in the future. From a global perspective, Japan is currently the most advanced country in the research and application of new energy vehicles and power batteries in the world. At present, Japan's major automotive and battery companies have invested in the construction of automotive lithium-ion battery production lines, focusing on production in 2010-2011. . Japan's Fuji economy believes that lithium-ion batteries will gradually replace nickel-metal hydride batteries in 2011, and lithium-ion batteries are undoubtedly the mainstream technology route in the future.
Today, in addition to shifting its focus to lithium batteries, Japan is experiencing the development and use of new energy vehicles, especially in the development and promotion of fuel cell vehicles, which is much faster than China's domestic expectations. In the past few years, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan has set a timetable for the development and promotion of fuel cell vehicles. Its strategic goal is: by 2010, Japan will use 50,000 fuel cell vehicles; in 2020, it will reach 5 million; to 2030 In the year, it is necessary to fully popularize fuel cell vehicles.
For the three key components of new energy vehicles, batteries, motors, and electronic control, the weakest link in domestic enterprises is the battery. The battery performance, reliability and product functions are still being explored, far from the mass production level. In fact, there are battery bottlenecks in the entire Chinese automotive industry.
The industry believes that whether it is a nickel-hydrogen battery or a lithium-ion battery, in order to win the market, it must have a high cost performance. Low-cost development of complete vehicles and critical components should be considered from the time of design. At present, the enterprises engaged in the research and development of automotive power batteries basically have no background and experience in the production of auto parts. These companies have inconsistent with the automotive industry in terms of product concepts, development processes, production process design and even cost calculation methods. Differs greatly. In addition, most of the practitioners in the automotive power battery industry come from the traditional battery industry and lack understanding of the car. To develop a vehicle power battery that is suitable for use in a vehicle power battery environment and has excellent performance, it is necessary to know more professional skills related to the car. Therefore, vehicle power battery companies and automobile companies should establish closer cooperation.
Then, how to strengthen cooperation and improve the cost performance of the vehicle power battery? Experts believe that, first of all, automotive power battery companies should seek technical breakthroughs, solve the problem of battery reliability in principle, and improve battery life, reduce battery loss and heat. Secondly, at the application level, vehicle power battery companies should provide system solutions, strengthen communication and coordination with vehicle manufacturers, and provide battery packs to provide battery packs, including battery grouping, cooling, protection, etc. The package provides products to downstream companies. Third, vehicle power battery companies must not only provide products to downstream enterprises, but also provide services to downstream enterprises, and provide battery maintenance and maintenance methods and methods for downstream enterprises and end users to improve battery life. Fourth, vehicle power battery companies should make full use of the opportunity of the “Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles†pilot to improve the production process of batteries to improve the consistency of batteries and achieve scale production and reduce production costs. Fifth, at this stage, vehicle power battery companies should develop battery recycling technology and provide battery recycling services. Because the battery has a high residual value, battery recycling can further reduce the user's cost of use.
Hu Maoyuan, chairman of SAIC, recently said on various occasions that joint research and development can be carried out between car companies. Among them, the joint research and development that Hu Maoyuan hopes to achieve is “the power battery of electric vehiclesâ€. In fact, SAIC's battery cooperation is already underway. A person from SAIC's New Energy Vehicles Division revealed that cooperation with foreign companies and domestic battery factories has begun. "The cooperation with OEMs is not ruled out."
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