On July 24, 2018, under the guidance of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the China Electronic Video Industry Association, Beijing Aowei Cloud Network Big Data Technology Co., Ltd. The 2018 China Intelligent Display and Innovative Application Industry Conference and the 48th CRC Color TV Industry Research Quarterly Conference with the theme of "Possibility, Thinking, Breaking, and Symbiosis" were held at the Sheraton Beijing Jinyu Hotel. Zhu Yuanyuan, deputy general manager of AVC's black power division, delivered a keynote speech on the performance of China's color TV market in the first half of 2018.
As the most mature category of home appliances, color TV has fierce market competition. In the past two years, panel prices have fluctuated continuously, which has increased the level of competition and the overall market is in turmoil. In 2016, the color TV market exceeded 50 million units for the first time. In 2017, the color TV market experienced the largest decline in history. It is more than half of 2018. What is the performance of the color TV market?
The color TV market recovered 3.6% in the first half of the yearFrom the perspective of upstream panels, panel prices have dropped significantly in 2018 compared to 2017, and the prices of key sizes have fallen by more than 20%. From the perspective of global development, panel prices have entered a downward channel, and sports events such as the World Cup have driven demand. The global color TV market shipped 99 million units in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year.
The downward trend of the panel also brings benefits to the Chinese color TV market, but its development still faces many challenges. AVC analysis believes that price wars are the biggest dilemma for China’s color TV market. In the 30 years of rapid development of color TVs, there have been more than 20 large-scale price wars, once every 1.5 years on average. Price wars are like a "prisoner’s dilemma". Consume the overall benefit. The reduction and improvement of domestic demand is another major challenge facing the color TV industry. Under the mobile Internet, home entertainment has entered an era of coexistence of multiple terminals. Mobile phones have replaced TVs as the longest-used audio-visual equipment for users, and TV demand has decreased; consumption has been upgraded. Next, high-quality, high-grade and high-quality products have become the focus of market pursuit.
In the first half of 2018, China's color TV market lacked growth momentum in a complex environment, which was manifested in volume growth and decline. According to AVC’s omni-channel sales data, the retail volume of China’s color TV market in the first half of 2018 was 22.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and the retail sales volume was 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. It was 15.53 million square meters, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year.
AVC believes that the main performance of China's color TV market in the first half of 2018 has the following characteristics:
1. Channel performance is polarized
From the perspective of channels, online sales have shown rapid growth. In the first half of 2018, online retail sales accounted for 44%, an increase of 9% compared to the same period last year. The online growth did not bring about the overall market growth, but caused the offline channels to decline across the board. Among them, large chains fell by 11% and other home appliances fell by 12%.
2. Intensive sales promotion is facilitating
Looking at the monthly scale year-on-year, the market scale in March and June increased by 8% and 24% year-on-year respectively, forming the peak of the promotion, and overdrafting the market demand before and after the promotion; in addition, from the consumer side, 61.8% of consumers will Choose a promotional node to buy TV products.
3. The increment brought by price stimulus is shrinking
In the first half of 2018, the average price of the online color TV market was RMB 2,545, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%. According to AVC online consumer survey data, 76% of consumers choose online shopping mainly because online is cheaper than offline stores. The online color TV market uses price as a weapon to drive scale growth, but the increase in low-price stimulus is shrinking. According to AVC online monitoring data, for every 1 yuan decrease in the average price in the first half of 2016, the online market The scale growth was 9479 units, and for every 1 yuan decrease in the average price in the first half of 2018, the online market scale grew to 7956 units.
4. Product upgrade is a deterministic way
The upgrade of color TV consumption is reflected in the increase in the share of high-end products. Consumers are most concerned about TV display attributes. According to AVC data, the scale of 4K TVs in the first half of 2018 increased by 25.4% year-on-year, and the scale of OLED TVs increased by 110.3 year-on-year. %, the scale of laser TV increased by 241.5% year-on-year, and the scale of ultra-thin TV increased by 109.5% year-on-year.
TV size boundaries are constantly being refreshed, and the "60+" era has begun. In the first half of 2018, 65 inches became the largest growth size in the color TV market. During the May Day promotion in 2018, 65 inches in the offline market replaced 32 inches as the second largest size in the offline market. The rapid expansion of 65 inches is that, on the one hand, the upstream panel supply can meet market demand. With the continuous increase in the production capacity of the 10.5-line panel, the 65-inch panel factory plans to be active in 2018. The global panel shipment BP is 17 million, an increase from last year. 55%. On the other hand, from the perspective of the terminal market, large size is one of consumers' expectations for future TV products. The market acceptance of 65-inch products is relatively high. At the same time, the price of 65-inch products continues to drop, stimulating consumer demand.
2017 is the first year of the development of artificial intelligence television, and the popularity of artificial intelligence will not decrease in 2018. In the first half of 2018, the market share of artificial intelligence TV was 45.8%, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. At present, the development of artificial intelligence TV is still in its infancy, and the industry standard is not clear. However, AVC believes that the development of artificial intelligence TV should focus on four directions: interactive methods, machine learning, home interconnection and cloud platforms.
Although the color TV market is facing operational challenges, the industry is still highly attractive. Since 2014, more than 10 companies have entered the color TV industry. The competition in the TV market has never stopped. It is expected that there will be 3 more companies in the second half of 2018. The entry of mobile phone companies will set off a new round of upsurge. The future development opportunities of the color TV market are mainly the following aspects:
1. New technologies open up demand space
The television industry has entered a period of explosive application of new technologies, and technology is being updated more and more rapidly. The advantages of the new color TV display technology are fully demonstrated in terms of image quality, form and performance.
From the perspective of layout, more and more companies are participating in the OLED market. In 2018, new major companies have joined. At the same time, the physical characteristics of OLED have continuously explored the advantages of OLED, and a variety of innovative products have emerged. The product form of chemistry, ultra-thin wallpaper, sound and picture integration, and curling has become the biggest focus.
Quantum dots, from upstream quantum dot materials, optical films and modules, to downstream complete machine companies, especially mainstream color TV manufacturers such as Samsung, TCL, Hisense, etc., domestic companies are actively deploying.
In terms of 8K, consumers believe that 8K is one of the high-end products in the future, and the upstream panels on the supply side are currently capable of mass production. This year, more factories are participating, and 8K has greatly expanded to large-size. space.
The scale of laser TVs led by Hisense has grown rapidly, the products have been upgraded in multiple directions, the addition of many brands and the intensive promotion of key nodes have made prices more and more affordable.
Micro LED is the next-generation display technology of small-pitch LEDs. At present, all links of the industry chain are still in the R&D layout and laboratory demo stage.
2. Seek external growth points
In the first half of 2018, China's color TV exports were 51.9M, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Judging from the proportion of Chinese brands’ shipments in various regions and year-on-year perspective, Eastern Europe and Latin America are the key areas for development. Chinese color TV companies are accelerating their "going to sea" and deploying international markets. Hisense, TCL, and Konka have experienced significant growth overseas, respectively. Increase of 11%, 66%, 52%. Brands such as Skyworth and Haier have opened the door to the international market through capital mergers and acquisitions or acquisitions of overseas companies with their strong strength, laying the foundation for brands to go overseas.
3. Seize the opportunity of innovative application of "TV+"
The application scenarios of display products continue to expand, and new application scenarios continue to emerge, thanks to the rapid development of China's display industry. Drive the massive innovation of smart display applications, new needs are constantly being created, new scenarios are constantly being explored, new technologies are beginning to penetrate into the commercial display field, and industry needs are becoming more diversified, such as smart retail, conferences, security, smart medical, car display, etc. The emergence of new demand provides new impetus for the development of the display industry, and the future market can be expected.
4. Extension of emerging channels
The emerging channel real estate hardcover market and the rise of Internet home improvement. The home improvement channel is the front end of the consumer's decoration process, and it is very important for acquiring consumers at the front end of the decoration process; the engineering channel currently has a low gross profit but a large scale. How to innovate the business model/profit model with engineering channel customers in the future Is the key. For example, Lianjia Ziruo will renovate in advance and cooperate with some home appliance companies before renting a house.
The color TV industry is an industry with both opportunities and challenges. To survive and develop in such a complex environment, enterprises need to build their own capabilities. AVC analysis believes that the key factors for future TV breaks are: first, technical reserves. In the first half of 2018, the number of domestic authorized patents was 217,000, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; as of the first half of 2018, domestic patent ownership The volume reached 1.475 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%; consumer electronics companies accounted for 60% of the TOP10 authorized patent companies in the first half of 2018. The TV industry is a technology-intensive industry, and technological innovation is the main source of product competitiveness and one of the main driving forces for enterprises to gain market share. The second is to increase the added value of the brand. Consumption upgrades have changed the consumers. Consumers buy not only products, but also the value of the brand itself. In the future, companies should build brand connectivity, brand premium power and brand communication power to form their own brand added value. Repurchase, transfer purchases and accelerated purchases are influenced by the brand. The third is to improve efficiency. In the past, the flow chain of the TV industry was the product-channel-user. Now users have a growing voice. The future industry consumption mode will be reversed, that is, starting from consumer demand, feedback to the enterprise production consumer The TV industry needs to reshape the industrial chain, improve efficiency, and create new business models.
In the second half of 2018, the favorable panel price and the concentrated promotion of sales broke out, and the market growth potential was still there. AVC predicts that in 2018, the retail volume of the color TV market will reach 49.13 million units, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, and the retail sales will reach 159.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The area will reach 34.7 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%.
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