After 2016, after experiencing the “cheatâ€, the new energy auto industry will be able to resume high-speed growth in 2017. NBD cars have reviewed the opportunities and challenges of the new energy vehicle industry in terms of policies, markets, technologies and supporting facilities, and the possibility of completing 2 million vehicles in 2020.
Last year, affected by the “cheat up†incident, various related policies have been adjusted accordingly. However, the government’s support attitude towards the new energy auto industry has not changed. At the same time, it has placed higher expectations and listed new energy vehicles as the pillar industries of the future.
However, according to NBD Auto, the policy has also raised the technical threshold while supporting the industry, and the subsidies are gradually declining. It is not difficult for enterprises to successfully complete the new energy vehicle promotion target.
Chen Quanshi, a professor at Tsinghua University, told NBD Motors that the current support for the policy is still very high, not only in terms of subsidies, but also factors such as restrictions and restrictions, which will promote the purchase of electric vehicles, plus the cost of use, 2020 The production target of 2 million vehicles is not difficult to complete."
Support strength is generally stable
At the Bairenhui Forum, Miao said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has taken the lead in compiling the Medium and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry, which clarifies that by 2020, the annual output of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million. By 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for the total. The proportion of sales has reached more than 20%.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2016, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 507,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%. NBD Motors learned that although it grew rapidly last year, it still failed to complete the original sales target of 700,000 units.
For the sales situation in 2017, although the China Automobile Association did not give clear expectations, but in Chen Quanshi, this year, the new energy vehicle market will grow at least 20%, "can reach 50% best."
NBD car computing found that, based on last year's sales of 507,000 vehicles, it will grow at a rate of 50% per year for the next four years. By 2020, sales will reach 2.57 million. However, with the gradual decline of the subsidy policy, it is more difficult to achieve 50% annual growth.
To achieve rapid growth, the government's strong policy support is still indispensable at this stage. Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD Co., Ltd., said at the Forum of 100 People, "To promote the development of new energy vehicles in China, we have one of the most comprehensive and systematic policy systems in the world. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, this system will also Continue to work."
Last year, influenced by the "cheat up" incident, the outside world has doubts about whether the new energy auto industry should be subsidized. However, many experts believe that the "criminal compensation" of corporate violations is a regulatory issue, and subsidies cannot be withdrawn immediately.
At the Forum of 100 People, Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, once again made clear that policy support will remain stable: at the end of last year, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed a plan to adjust and improve the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. The basic ideas include the maintenance of 2016 to 2020, that is, under the premise of the overall stability of the subsidy policy during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period, “the support direction remains unchanged, the support period remains unchanged, and the support intensity remains stable overall. ".
In addition, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the new energy vehicle plan put forward requirements for the construction of charging facilities and the improvement of technical specifications. The gradual clarification of policies also enhanced the confidence of enterprises in industrial development.
Car technology, cost pressure is still relatively large
Although the overall policy support has remained stable, since the last year, subsidy policies and technical requirements have been adjusted. The company believes that the next test is not small.
Chen Quanshi believes that although the subsidies for new energy vehicles will decline, they have not been completely withdrawn at present, and policy support is not only reflected in subsidies. The restrictions and restrictions on large cities are also factors in promoting the electric vehicle market. Therefore, in 2020, 200 The production target of 10,000 vehicles should be achievable.
On the technical level, Miao Wei said at the Forum of 100 People, "The Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" proposes that by 2020, the specific energy of the power battery system will reach 260 watt-hours per kilogram, and the cost will drop to 1 watt-hour. Yuan; by 2025, the specific energy of the power battery system reaches 350 watt-hours per kilogram. This requires companies to achieve greater technological breakthroughs.
Because the electric vehicle industry is more competitive with traditional fuel vehicles than other industries. Therefore, Wang Chuanfu believes that by 2025, even if the cost of the battery drops to less than 1 yuan per watt hour, according to the same brand and the same configuration, the new energy vehicle is still about 20% to 30% more expensive than the traditional car, so the subsidy is as follows. At the end of the 3rd Five-Year Plan, the new energy auto industry will still face pressure.
Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, told NBD that in order to achieve the production target of 2 million units in 2020, macro-control is very important on the one hand, and it is necessary to use carbon emission points, 5 liters of fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. To increase the research and development of new energy vehicles, on the other hand, relying on the improvement of battery technology in recent years, the power of technology and the power of regulations will ultimately play a decisive role.
Fu Yuwu further stated that in the future, there will be uncertainty in the development of technology, so policy guidance and regulations will not be less. Under the pressure of multiple pressures, look at the power of the market as the main body of enterprises.
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