Nuclear power restart business opportunities

On the afternoon of April 18th, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the National Energy Commission for the first time and made it clear that “under the premise of adopting the highest international safety standards and ensuring safety, timely launch of new nuclear power key project construction in the eastern coastal areas”. This is another clear statement made by Li Keqiang in the field of nuclear power construction after he proposed to start a batch of nuclear power projects in the government work report. According to industry analysts, the prime minister once again stressed the start of nuclear power projects, boosted market confidence and the approval process for new projects is expected to accelerate. However, stressing safety and maintaining prudence remain the keystone for the development of nuclear power, and it is expected that there will not be a rapid development trend before the Fukushima accident. According to experts from the National Nuclear Technology Committee, at present, several coastal nuclear power plants in China are waiting to start roads. Among them, the main equipments of No. 1 and No. 2 units of Shandong Shidao Bay Nuclear Power Station of the CAP1400 demonstration project will be put in place this year. The 3rd and 4th units of the 3rd project, the 3rd and 4th units of the Haiyang project, the 1st and 2nd units of the Xudabao project, and the Lufeng project. Units 1 and 2 and Hongyanhe project No. 5 and No. 6 nuclear power resumption of business opportunity units all have the starting conditions. Up to now, the number of nuclear power units that China has put into commercial operation has reached 18, with a total installed capacity of 15.86 million kilowatts. The 30 nuclear power generating units under construction are mostly started before the Fukushima accident, that is, from 2008 to 2010, accounting for about 40% of the global nuclear power unit under construction. Affected by these factors, the concept stocks of nuclear power have recently been strong.

As one of the most sensitive energy industries in China, Japan’s nuclear re-stimulus has received much attention and attention has been paid to nuclear power policy and project approval. According to the reporter’s understanding, in the "12th Five-Year Plan" development plan for nuclear power, the state raised the threshold for entry into the nuclear power industry and added more assessment criteria for safety inspections to nuclear power plants that have been built, under construction, and to be built, and strengthened regulation and supervision. . In 2011, the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, slowed down the pace of global nuclear power development. China also slowed down the pace of development of nuclear power, conducted nuclear power safety inspections, and stepped up efforts to improve relevant nuclear power regulations and regulatory systems. However, according to the "12th Five-Year Plan" of nuclear power, China's long-term development of nuclear power will not change, but the previous "positive development" will become "safe and efficient development."

However, there are also industry analysts, the domestic nuclear power to restart the acceleration may be stimulated by Japan's nuclear power program to restart. According to a report from the Japanese Kyodo News Agency on April 11, the Japanese government adopted the "Energy Basic Plan" at the cabinet meeting on the same day, positioning nuclear power as "an important source of basic electricity" and setting out guidelines for promoting the restart of nuclear power plants. The success of the plan means that Japan has completely overturned the "2030 nuclear power" target proposed by the Democratic Party Noda regime. It is worth pointing out that accelerating the adoption of renewable energy is also one of the main contents of the plan, and the issue of "nuclear waste" disposal is not explicitly mentioned.

This is the first basic energy plan formulated by the government after the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident. Since the Fukushima nuclear power accident in March 2011, the continued use of nuclear power has been widely opposed by the Japanese community. However, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made it clear at the end of 2012 that he intends to restart those nuclear reactors that are considered safe under the new rules. Abe said that nuclear power is crucial to maintaining the competitiveness of Japanese industries, because the elimination of all nuclear power plants will require large write-downs and lead to higher electricity bills. To this end, as early as February of this year, the Japanese government prepared the above draft plan. "It is very coincidental in terms of time, but guessing is still not certain. After all, it is worth mentioning that nuclear power is what the country wants to master and develop." Do not want to be named when interviewed by this reporter Pointed out.

The restart of the interior is still controversial. At present, China is already the world’s largest country in the construction of nuclear power. According to statistics, by the end of 2009, the installed capacity of China's nuclear power was 9.08 million kilowatts, a total of 11 units, which accounted for only 1.04% of the total installed capacity of the country's power generation, and nuclear power generated 70 billion kwh, which only accounted for the total amount of electricity generated in the country. 1.95%; In 2009, China further accelerated the speed of project approval and construction. In the whole year, it approved two sets of 1.25 million kilowatts of three in Zhejiang, two sets of 1.25 million kilowatts in Shandong Haiyang, and two sets of 1.75 million kilowatts of nuclear power units in Taishan, Guangdong. The scale of 8.5 million kilowatts, and has started construction in the year. As of the end of 2009, the nationwide nuclear power construction scale has reached 20 units and 21.8 million kilowatts. "We should maintain this leading position." Analysts believe that the development of nuclear power is the fundamental way to solve the energy problem, coupled with the current domestic pollution is extremely serious, the adoption of nuclear power technology, can greatly ease this dilemma.

However, the question is whether inland nuclear power should be restarted. If there is any guarantee for the restart, Zhang Yongxiang, chief of the security department of the Hunan Mining and Metallurgy Bureau of the nuclear industry, said in an interview with the media that Hunan should start construction of inland nuclear power as soon as possible in order to solve the problem. The development of electricity demand improves the atmospheric environment. Zhang Yongxiang believes that inland nuclear power is actually not new. Like coastal nuclear power, it is a mature type of nuclear power.

Among nuclear power stations in the world, the proportion of inland nuclear power stations is about 50%. For example, French inland nuclear power accounts for about 70% of total nuclear power, the United States is even higher, and inland nuclear power accounts for more than 80%. And overall it is in good condition. “Hunan Electric Power is dominated by hydropower and thermal power, and the hydropower resources have basically been developed. However, thermal power plants are facing increasingly severe environmental pressures, such as severe hazy weather, and they also have to face difficulty in supplying power coal at peak times. As a clean, efficient, and stable energy source, nuclear power can effectively solve the energy demand problem in Hunan.” Zhang Yongxiang said that with the continuous advancement of nuclear power technology, nuclear power plants will become increasingly safe. Nuclear power in China, especially new nuclear power, is built in accordance with the highest standards in the world, and security is completely controllable. However, it is worth mentioning that AP1000 technology is a big weight in restarting inland nuclear power. AP1000 has not yet been put into production. Therefore, it is necessary to prove its safety by practice. It is necessary for the public to see that it is safe, so as to convince the public. Therefore, everything has yet to be tested and it should not be rushed. Yang Fuqiang, a senior advisor to the Natural Resources Defense Council's (NRDC) energy, environment, and climate change, once believed that the development of inland nuclear power should take into account the comprehensive energy planning of the region. From the perspective of conventional energy sources, there will be gaps in the local area and how much the gap will be. It is indeed necessary to consider the development of nuclear power. The development of inland nuclear power should be "careful."

Opportunities are still showing in the market information of equipment. As of November 2011, there are 14 nuclear power units in operation in China, with a total installed capacity of 11.88 million kilowatts. There are 27 nuclear power units under construction with a total capacity of 29.89 million kilowatts. In 2012, the "12th Five-Year Plan Rolling Research Report on the Electric Power Industry" published by the China National Electric Power Co., Ltd. pointed out that the planned installed nuclear power capacity in 2020 will reach 80 million kilowatts.

This is twice as much as the plan made in 2007. According to the data from the China Nuclear Energy Association, there are currently 17 nuclear power units that have been put into commercial operation in China, and the total installed nuclear power capacity is 14.74 million kilowatts. The 28 nuclear power generating units under construction have an installed capacity of more than 30 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world. The estimated completion time will be from 2015 to 2016. By then, China will have a total installed capacity of more than 45 million kilowatts, and China will become the third largest nuclear power country in the world. Since the end of 2012, the state has clearly released the approval of nuclear power projects, Fuqing Nuclear Power Units 5 and 6, Haiyang Nuclear Power Units 3 and 4, Xu Dabao Nuclear Power Units 1 and 2, Lufeng Nuclear Power Units 1, 2 and 3 Nuclear power projects such as Units 3 and 4 have been carrying out bids and biddings since 2013. Investment issues are opportunities for A shares. In the investor interaction platform of Jiangsu Shentong (002438, the stock bar), investors have asked the listed company to announce the successful bid of the above project. Jiangsu Shentong responds with “being involved”.

Under the background that nuclear power investment is expected to accelerate, various types of investors are beginning to target this area. Because once the investment starts to increase, the rising performance of listed companies will become a definite event. Among the A-share listed companies, the nuclear power industry chain has a clear layout. The nuclear island area is mainly provided by China Yizhong, Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric and other companies; in terms of conventional islands, Dongfang Electric's steam turbine and generator market share accounted for 54%; in the separator market, Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric The market share is about 35%; the auxiliary equipment mainly includes all kinds of nuclear-level valves. Jiangsu Shentong is the leading enterprise of domestic valves, and its products are used in the nuclear grade butterfly valves and nuclear grade ball valves of nuclear power plants. The nuclear power industry stocks also include China Nuclear Technology, Dunan Environment, China Energy Environmental Protection, Nanfeng Shares, and Wall Nuclear Materials. Since the beginning of the year, a group of institutional investors have started to investigate in Jiangsu Shentong. Jiangsu Shentong was once a bull stock of nuclear power, but suffered a nuclear power crisis in 2011. Its stock price dropped from a high point of 45 yuan to 20 yuan (after restoration of rights). Today, nuclear power investment is expected to accelerate, and Jiangsu Shentong's gain has reached 25% during the year. However, the organization seems to have doubts about whether nuclear power investment can be accelerated. “We recently consulted some buyer studies and we have actually investigated the situation. We feel that the dispute is still relatively large, so we dare not dare to get involved.” A Shanghai public fund researcher Told reporters.