In 2016, HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and Sony PSVR were launched, which made the market full of expectations for VR. We hope that these products will be launched, which will cause the market to explode in 1-2 years, and drive the new product market that can connect smart phones. In addition, smart watches And the bracelet is not popular, but Fitbit still has a bright performance, driving the penetration of smart bracelets continue to increase; Apple-based smart watch manufacturers also launched new products in 2016, trying to improve the wisdom of buying watches.
Wearables grew less than expectedStarting from the launch of smart watches and smart bracelets, the market for wearable devices is about to break out. Especially in 2016, VR is hot, and whether VR can make the wearable device market take off.
However, according to the data of Tuoba Industrial Research Institute, the overall wearable device market has not experienced explosive growth in 2016 and 2017. Although the market grew by 19.1% in 2016, the overall scale was only 95.31 million units; To 107 million units, the annual growth rate is only 12.5%. From this point of view, it cannot be said that it is a big outbreak, but only a steady growth.
From more detailed data analysis, the VR market grew from 2.91 million units in 2016 to 5.1 million units in 2017, almost double the growth, but only a small part of the overall wearable device. The main products of the wearable device are still smart bracelets and smart watches. However, in 2016, the number of smart watches changed from 18.3 million in the previous year to 16.7 million. The overall wearable device market momentum still comes from the growth of smart bracelets.
The main reason for the growth of the smart bracelet is the increase in consumer acceptance. Among them, Fitbit has the advantage of advanced, coupled with the clear image of the brand and products, which drives the shipments to rise and promotes the growth of the smart bracelet market. Therefore, the smart bracelet market is in 2016. It has an annual growth rate of 32.2% and shipments of 61.6 million units. In 2017, it will increase to 67.8 million units, up 10.1%.
Smart watch new products can't push the marketIn 2016, many manufacturers launched new smart watches. In addition to the attractive Apple Watch, ASUS, Samsung and Huawei all launched new products. In 2015, smart watch shipments were basically driven by the topical Apple Watch. There are no new features in the product, and shipments will decline in 2016.
The new Apple Watch has no new highlights for consumers. Apple is using this product strategy adjustment. However, even if the Apple Watch strategy is useful and the new products do not add new features and services, it is difficult for the smart watch market to grow significantly at least for 1 year. It depends on whether manufacturers can add new applications to attract consumers in 2017, otherwise the entire wearable device market will still be dominated by the smart bracelet led by Fitbit.
Limited shortage of AMOLED panel shipmentsThe shortage of AMOLED panels has given the most fatal blow to high-end VR supply in 2016, resulting in only 2.91 million high-end VR glasses shipped, almost how many panels can be obtained. The biggest reason for the shortage of panels is that the three brands of the panel are all from Samsung. Other suppliers have not yet produced a lot of products. Some of them have too much difference between panel quality and Samsung. The demand for AMOLED panels is also increasing for smart phones. AMOLED panels are preferred for mobile phones. In addition, the yield of AMOLED panels used by VR is relatively low, which will naturally make VR supply shortage in AMOLED panels.
In 2016, HTC’s Vive shipments were only 460,000 units, and Oculus was expected to have 650,000 units. As for the most promising PSVR, there were only 1.5 million units. In 2017, Samsung AMOLED will expand production, but mobile phones including iPhone will increase the demand for AMOLED. The supply of AMOLED panels for Samsung VR has increased, but the increase will not be too large. The conservative estimate will fall to around 5 million units.
Therefore, from the perspective of panel supply, high-end VR shipments will reach 5.1 million units in 2017, of which PSVR will increase to 2.5 million units, and Oculus will increase to 1.2 million units. As for HTC, it is not as good as Oculus because of its relationship with Samsung. The purchase of VR panels is far from Sony, and the panel supply that can be obtained from it will be the least. Even by 2017, the estimated shipments will be only 600,000 units.
HTC Vive is still on saleThe lack of panels has a great impact on HTC Vive. Especially for Google's Pixel, AMOLED panels are also needed. In the past, Samsung has reduced the supply of HTC's AMOLED panels due to insufficient supply. This also makes it impossible for HTC Vive to obtain many panels. optimism.
As far as the impact is concerned, the promotion strategy of HTC Vive in 2017 will be different. Vive originally used the rental sales strategy to first cultivate a group of users through high-performance experience. After the price of high-end VR glasses is reduced, these users are converted into purchasers. However, AMOLED is in short supply and Vive can supply a large amount. The time of the goods has to be postponed, and HTC has to focus more on the development of “rental†aspects.
In addition, HTC is actively developing multi-domain applications other than games. The main reason is that Valve Opens Lighthouse's API to third-party vendors, so that HTC police can not think that eggs can not be placed in the same basket. VR has more applications besides entertainment, HTC Cooperation with Alibaba is an example. In the case that the supply can not keep up, in 2017, HTC can only focus more on providing consumer experience and enhancement of functions and services.
Oculus adds a separate VR deviceOculus and Samsung are partners in VR technology. Compared to HTC, Oculus can get high-quality AMOLED panels without worrying about being out of stock, but whether it is Oculus or Facebook, what is the sales experience, Oculus still has Faced with problems such as component and line yields, even in the future, by adding more component suppliers and assembly plants, the Oculus Rift will be affected in a short period of time.
Oculus introduces a new touch controller to enhance the product experience. On the other hand, the new technology allows users to reduce the hardware requirements under the same experience, so consumers can run VR with a lower-equipped PC. Oculus also works with CyberPowerPC. Cooperating to launch a $499 VR PC, I hope to increase sales by lowering consumer entry barriers.
At the 2016 Oculus Developers Conference, Facebook CEO Zuckerberg showed the Santa Cruz prototype as an independent VR device with built-in components such as computing cores and sensors. Facebook is not going to let Instead of Oculus Rift, it becomes a VR glasses for gaming entertainment, but it is locked in applications such as the community. In this case, the amount of computation required by VR is not too high, so Oculus' future products will be divided into high-order Oculus Rift-based products. VR, and an independent VR device based on Santa Cruz.
The PSVR price is the lowest cost for consumers in three high-end VR devices. In addition, Sony has a large number of game entertainment resources, and PSVR has become the hottest high-end VR glasses in 2016. PSVR uses 5.7-inch panel, which is close to the use of smart phones. The yield and supply will be much better than the competitor's 3.61-inch special-sized panel. Sony has some cooperation with Samsung in recent years, including providing games. The content supports Samsung's TV, etc. This is also the reason why PSVR still has a certain growth in 2017.
Google Daydream growth is still unknownIn addition to high-end VR devices, another heavyweight VR product in 2016 is Google's mobile VR platform Daydream. Google hopes to establish a VR ecosystem in the mobile device industry through the affordable VR glasses Daydream View and Daydream platform, and then to the independent VR device, so these devices have to use Android, so that Google's influence continues to extend into the future, this It’s also why Google is adopting a lower pricing strategy.
From the perspective of Google’s influence on smart phones, it is foreseeable that there is basically no mobile VR device that can compete with Google, but this does not mean that Daydream will be able to launch a shipment to meet the big outbreak, because Daydream has to Face the two challenges of both hardware and software. And the launch of Daydream may prompt some mobile phone manufacturers who have been researching mobile VR devices to invest in developing products that support Daydream, and transfer resources to high-end VR devices or independent VR devices. For example, Samsung may enter high-end. Development of VR devices.
With the launch of HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and PSVR products, other wait-and-see vendors can learn from it, plus open source API and VR prototypes, other vendors will have lower barriers to entry; in addition, games and communities Such as the development of various application functions, manufacturers will hope to enhance the value of their own brands through these applications, so will also begin to try to develop VR products, such as Tencent, Nintendo, Dell and Lenovo, which try to launch game consoles, etc. It is therefore possible to step into this market.
In November 2016, Microsoft announced its own VR device. This product is likely to be available in 2017. Intel also published the VR technology Project Alloy in 2016. Is it possible that Wintel will once again join forces to provide chips and technology from Intel? It is not impossible to provide a system platform, even a VR hardware design, and sell it through a third-party partner.
It is foreseeable that the competition in the VR industry will become more and more fierce in the future. In any case, the lack of AMOLED panels is a major obstacle to the rapid development of the VR market in the past few years. In a short period of time, there will be fewer manufacturers that actually sell new products. Based on research and development and prototype production.
Wisdom bracelets become the industry pillarSmart watches have no new highlights in 2016, so after the Apple Watch novelty, shipments have declined, and it is expected that 2017 will return to normal growth, reaching 17.7 million; instead, the smart bracelet grows strongly in Fitbit. Under the leadership, it will increase from 61.6 million in 2016 to 67.8 million in 2017. As for the shortage of AMOLED panels, VR will not be able to supply more products. In 2016, there will be only 2.91 million units, even 2017. There were only 5.5 million units in the year. As a result, shipments of the wearable device market in 2016 were 95.31 million units, and will grow 12.5% ​​to 107 million units in 2017.
Key manufacturers and trends in 2017In 2017, the smart bracelet is still dominated by Fitbit, with its main sports and health functions, and it grows steadily; smart watches will still focus on the design, so the situation is similar to that of 2016, but Apple is expected to launch new watches in 2017. If the function of attracting consumers is launched at that time, the smart watch market may also have a clear upward momentum.
In terms of VR, the mobile VR market will be dominated by Google Daydream, but whether it can grow rapidly in 2017 depends on the number of high-end mobile phone support and the level of platform services; independent VR devices are still based on Chinese startups. Mainly, but the content support and actual experience are not as good as high-end VR devices. This market is difficult to do. The PSVR of high-end VR connected game consoles will continue to be popular in 2017 due to sufficient content, while the PC-side VR, the original Vive should be Will win by providing a better experience and Steam support, but after being short of AMOLED panels, I am afraid that I can only continue to fight with Oculus. On the one hand, Oculus will continue to compete with Vive and will try to develop into independent VR devices. And may therefore erode the Daydream market. (The author of this article is a researcher at the Tuoba Industrial Research Institute of TrendForce)
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